The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, which has recently rekindled, is a long-standing and complex territorial dispute that has plagued the South Caucasus region for decades. The conflict revolves around the status of Nagorno-Karabakh, a mountainous region located within the borders of Azerbaijan but predominantly populated by ethnic Armenians. Recent events have once again thrust this conflict into the international spotlight, prompting concerns over the fate of civilians and the risk of a full-blown war. This article provides an in-depth exploration of the background, historical context, and the latest developments in this protracted conflict.
Historical Background
1. Soviet Era: The roots of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict can be traced back to the Soviet era when the region was an autonomous entity within the Azerbaijani Soviet Socialist Republic. Despite its ethnic Armenian majority, it was governed by Azerbaijan.
2. Ethnic Tensions: As the Soviet Union began to disintegrate in the late 1980s, tensions between ethnic Armenians and Azerbaijanis in Nagorno-Karabakh escalated. The region's parliament voted to become part of Armenia, leading to violent clashes.
3. Full-Scale War (1988-1994): The conflict erupted into a full-scale war between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the late 1980s and early 1990s, resulting in significant casualties and displacement. Armenian forces took control of Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding areas.
4. Ceasefire and De Facto Independence: In 1994, a ceasefire brokered by Russia ended the war, leaving Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan but under de facto Armenian control. The conflict became a "frozen" one, with occasional flare-ups.
Recent Developments
1. 2020 Escalation: The most recent major escalation occurred in 2020 when Azerbaijan launched a 44-day war to regain territory around Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan made significant territorial gains, including the recapture of areas held by Armenia since the 1994 ceasefire.
2. Russian Peacekeepers: A ceasefire agreement brokered by Russia in November 2020 brought an end to the fighting, with Russian peacekeepers deployed to the region to maintain stability.
3. Blockade and Rising Tensions: Tensions flared up again in 2022 when Azerbaijan effectively blockaded the Lachin Corridor, the only road connecting Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia. This corridor was crucial for the supply of food and medicine to the region's residents.
4. Russia's Diverted Attention: Russia's ability to maintain the status quo in Nagorno-Karabakh was hampered by its involvement in the Ukraine conflict, diverting military resources and attention away from the South Caucasus.
5. Shift in Armenia-Russia Relations: Armenia, traditionally aligned with Russia, has sought to diversify its security relationships, hosting joint exercises with US forces and indicating a reduced reliance on Russia.
6. Escalation in 2023: In response to the blockade and escalating tensions, Azerbaijan launched a military operation in Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023, leading to renewed violence and international concern.
Key Actors
1. Azerbaijan: Azerbaijan has repeatedly expressed its desire to regain full control of Nagorno-Karabakh, by force if necessary. It has the support of Turkey, with which it shares cultural and historical ties.
2. Armenia: Armenia traditionally had strong ties with Russia but has recently sought to diversify its security partnerships. It continues to back the ethnic Armenian population in Nagorno-Karabakh.
3. Russia: As a regional power, Russia has played a significant role in mediating the conflict and deploying peacekeepers to the region. Its involvement has been complicated by its engagement in other conflicts, notably in Ukraine.
Conclusion
The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is a deeply rooted and volatile dispute with a complex history. Recent developments, including the 2020 escalation and the 2023 military operation, highlight the fragility of the ceasefire agreements and the potential for renewed violence. The conflict's resolution remains elusive, and the fate of civilians caught in the crossfire continues to be a source of international concern. The South Caucasus remains a region where shifting alliances and geopolitical considerations play a significant role in shaping the future of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Note for UPSC Aspirants: For UPSC aspirants interested in exploring further, here are some keywords to guide your research: Human Rights, Territorial Disputes, Lachin Corridor, Nationalism, Self-Determination Principle, Geopolitical Influence.
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